The Middle East is undergoing a historic change, reminiscent of the famous Sykes-Picot agreement that shaped the region for the next century at the hands of the French and the British, in the aftermath of the Great War and the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire during the first two decades of the past century. Almost a hundred years later, global powers are reshaping the regional dynamics and redrawing the lines in the sand at the behest of the people indigenous to the land. The idea of a New Middle East has repeatedly emerged in the corridors of power in the US since the dawn of the 3rd millennium, one that would achieve a regional balance of power that better serves the interests and aspirations of the United States, in the global game of chess. This post summarizes the key events that unfolded during 2024 in the Middle East, contextualizing them within broader geopolitical trends, and concludes with predictions for 2025.
US Strategic Interests and Regional Stability
Obama, Trump, and Biden have each tried to create a stable situation in the Middle East that protects U.S. interests without using direct military force. They aim to form an “American Middle East” that supports U.S. needs rather than threatens them. Most of the actions taken by the U.S. in the region over the past twenty years have been guided by this strategy. This includes the American response to the Arab Spring, the signing and subsequent withdrawal from the nuclear agreement with Iran, the implementation of sanctions on certain countries like Iran and Syria, support for armed groups in conflict zones such as the Kurds, various political upheavals, and diplomatic reconciliations. Each major event that shaped the current regional atmosphere has the mark of American and Israeli involvement, which capitalized on the tyranny and oppression of Arab regimes, as well as the local populations’ desire for change, to promote their vision for the region. Other global powers also took advantage of the failure of local authorities to properly manage the affairs of their states to achieve strategic goals in the region—namely the Levant and Arab sphere—such as Russia, Turkey, Iran, the EU and less notably China.
The Al Aqsa Flood: A Turning Point in the Palestinian Struggle
A year ago, Palestinians in Gaza, led by Hamas and the Qassam Brigade, launched a surprise attack on Israeli territory surrounding the strip. The operation consisted of ground, air, and sea incursions using very basic and modest equipment. The most memorable and symbolic of these were the motorized paragliders that soared through the skies on that fateful morning following the breach of the heavily monitored and weaponized gates that separated Gaza from the rest of the world.
The Al Aqsa Flood as it came to be known, came at a time when the world, particularly Arab governments, had started to move past the Palestinian Cause through a series of normalization agreements with Israel, dubbed the Abraham Accords, under the patronage of the United States. There was a strategic need for stability in the Middle East, as the US steered its military might towards Asia Pacific. As such, it needed to do so with the assurance that US interests were safeguarded and secure. A new security arrangement was required to fill the void that would ensue following America’s withdrawal.
October the 7th came as a response to this Western push for stability in the MENA region at the expense of the Palestinians. It echoed throughout the world the utter opposition of the Palestinians to every solution that does not grant them their rights and draft a clear path towards a Palestinian State. October the 7th shocked the world, not because of the portrayed brutality of the Hamas fighters by Western media, nor the kidnapping of the hostages, but because it reminded the whole world that the Palestinian flame for self-determination was still alive and awake after more than 70 years under brutal occupation in a system of apartheid, and a cruel 20-year blockade of the Gaza Strip. It came as a wake-up call that no amount of diplomatic treaties, or normalization agreements between Israel and Arab States, can compensate for the pain and suffering of the Palestinian people.
The operation exposed the weaknesses of Israeli intelligence and military apparatus that had crafted for years this aura of invincibility and superiority aided by billions and billions of US taxpayer dollars, only to be overcome by tiny blockaded Gaza. Israel immediately started an aerial bombing campaign on Gaza that expanded into a ground operation on the 27th of October 2023. The invasion aimed to reinforce Israel’s dominance over the strip, leaving it completely devastated and subjecting the Palestinian population to immense suffering, which the International Court of Justice described as “genocidal in nature.”
The genocide in Gaza continues as 2024 concludes. What has changed, and what can we expect in the year ahead?
2024 in Retrospect: A Year of Upheaval and Transformation
Israel brilliantly managed to take advantage of the situation to launch a counterattack on not just the faction that launched the attack, but the entire front that supports it—the Axis of Resistance. Hezbollah immediately opened a support front, to aid its ally Hamas, by initially targeting military positions in Northern Israel and the occupied Shebaa Farms. The intention was to coerce the Israeli leadership to accept a cease-fire in Gaza, under the threat of the gradual increase in the pace of escalation on the Northern front. The Ansar Allah in Yemen, also known as the Houthis, joined the fight as well by targeting vessels and carriers passing through the Bab el Mandeb strait, heading to Israel or with Israeli ownership, to increase the pressure on the Israeli and American governments. Militias in Iraq and Syria targeted American military bases and even fired rockets and drones into Israel in support of their allies. This act of support culminated when Iran directly got involved in the conflict by launching two attacks on Israel. The first took place on April 1st 2024 in retaliation for an Israeli strike against its consulate in Damascus, which led to the deaths of diplomats and operatives of the Revolutionary Guard. The second attack was a response to the assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, and Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah. The Iranian response, which intensified between the two strikes, consisted of waves of ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles that hit major airfields and military sites in Israel. The Axis’ strategy centered around increasing the pressure on Israel on multiple fronts in a war of attrition. Israel in turn retaliated to the latest Iranian attack by targeting air defense systems and military sites deep within Iranian territory.
What the Axis failed to understand was the intentions of their enemies. They based their actions on assumptions about how the Israelis would respond in hostage rescue situations, relying on their knowledge of the Israeli military mindset. The prevailing belief was that Israel would never abandon its hostages and would do everything possible to rescue its own people. Additionally, they assumed that the Israelis were not accustomed to prolonged warfare. All they needed to do was endure the intense initial response from Israel, which would inevitably result in significant destruction and loss of life—a small price to pay to achieve a historic victory against Israel and change the tide of the conflict. After that, it would only be a matter of time until Israel surrendered.
However, this battle turned out to be different. Israel, with the support of the West, was fighting for its survival and aimed to shift the entire balance of power in the region to its advantage and ensure the superiority of its occupation over any other power claiming to oppose it in the region. This indicates that the Israeli war goals were far more ambitious than what was being portrayed in the media. Israel sought to deliver a crushing blow to Iran and its allies and crown itself as the leader of this New Middle East. It was evident that Israel was fully prepared for the conflict, having developed plans and strategies well in advance. One could speculate that the attacks on October 7th provided Israel with the justification it needed to launch a large-scale offensive against its adversaries, under the guise of self-defense.
Regional Power Shifts: The Struggle for Dominance
As the days passed, unreasonable demands and last-minute modifications stalled the negotiations while the Israeli army invaded most of the Gaza Strip. Although they were met with severe resistance everywhere they entered, the Israelis had overwhelming superiority in every aspect. Eventually, the situation increasingly appeared to be heading towards the total destruction of Gaza and its annexation by Israel. Today, Gaza lies in ruins, with more than 45,000 dead and over 100,000 injured. it has been divided into three parts separated by military checkpoints and Israel has total control over what and who comes in and out of the strip. No humanitarian aid is getting across, hospitals are almost out of order and most of them have been besieged and bombed by the Israeli military.
Lebanon also sustained considerable damage before a 60-day truce was established on the 27th of November 2024. During this period, the Lebanese Armed Forces are required to deploy in the southern region and dismantle all existing Hezbollah infrastructure. This effort aims to strengthen the state’s control over security in the area leading up to a supposed Israeli withdrawal behind the demarcation line. However, with over 800 recorded breaches of the agreement by the Israelis—ranging from demolishing houses in border towns to intruding into villages and areas that were previously inaccessible during the fighting, and even carrying out strikes deep within Lebanese territory—the situation in Lebanon remains volatile.
The most significant plot twist happened the same day the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel was implemented, as regional dynamics took a surprising turn. In Syria, rebel groups in the Idlib province launched a surprise attack on the city of Aleppo. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) managed to capture Aleppo in just three days with minimal resistance from the Syrian Army. This swift takeover signaled to the leaders of the Islamist group that the Assad regime was nearing its end. Following their victory in Aleppo, HTS advanced rapidly towards Hama, then Homs, and within two weeks, they entered the capital, Damascus. Just like that, the Assad regime, which had oppressed the Syrian people for more than 50 years, was overthrown. This development represented a strategic disaster for Iran and its Axis of Resistance. Assad’s fall effectively cuts off the flow of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah and Hamas—at least in the foreseeable future. Iran and Hezbollah played a key role in protecting the Assad regime during the heated stage of the war and effectively managed, along with Russian air support, to keep Assad in power throughout the 2010s. The fall of the Assad regime also dealt a significant blow to Russia, stripping it of a key ally in the region and undermining its strategic foothold in the Middle East and on the shores of the Mediterranean. With the collapse of its long-standing influence in Syria, Russia faces increased isolation in a region where it had previously projected power and counterbalanced Western hegemony.
In response to these rapid changes, the Israeli army swiftly took action in the Golan Heights after Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered the seizure of the buffer zone, effectively declaring an end to the 1974 border agreement. The military expanded its territory, aiming to secure its borders against potential future threats. Within less than a week, Israel managed to occupy an area twice the size of Gaza with zero resistance, including the strategically significant Mount Hermon, which positioned Israeli artillery just 40 kilometers away from Damascus.
The Middle East Between Global Aspirations and Local Realities
The world appears to be entering an era of chaos, dominated by geopolitics and realism. The rule-based international order is giving way to rising authoritarianism and isolationist policies. Donald Trump’s overwhelming victory in the U.S. presidential elections symbolizes this shift, reflecting the global trend towards strong right-wing leaders and nationalism. Trump’s campaign promises to end wars and withdraw the U.S. from unnecessary conflicts. Yet, as the war in Ukraine continues and Israel’s military actions devastate Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, it remains uncertain how he will achieve these goals.
In the Middle East, the balance of power that favored Iran and its proxies over the past decade has dramatically shifted. Within months, the region has witnessed the emergence of an “American Middle East,” where the influence of Israel and Turkey has surged at the expense of Iran, the Arab world, and the native peoples of the Levant. Palestinians now face an excruciating choice: survival or self-determination. The once-prominent “land for peace” paradigm has devolved into a grim “survival for peace” formula, marking a significant setback for the Palestinian cause.
The region is fraught with pressing questions: Will Israel double down on its dominance by launching preemptive strikes on Iran, Iraq, and Yemen? Or will Iran’s regime collapse under internal and external pressures before such actions take place? Could Iran make an unexpected comeback through new alliances and strategies, possibly even achieving nuclear status? Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen continue to challenge U.S. interests, raising questions about their ability to maintain their position. The fate of South Lebanon and the occupied Golan Heights in Syria remains unclear. Will the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel hold or will the two countries descend into war again? In Syria, HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Joulani has emerged as a pivotal figure. Can he navigate the complexities of Syrian politics to unify the country and lay the foundations of a modern state? The Gulf States, wary of the rise of political Islam near their borders, must decide how to approach Syria’s transformation and its implications for their relationships with Qatar and Turkey. How will the Kurdish question evolve amidst regional upheaval and the competing interests of neighboring states?
The next five years will be critical in shaping the global vision for 2030, as many developing nations aim for a multipolar world where regional and global powers strike a delicate balance. Until then, international politics will likely operate in a state of interregnum, a turbulent period where competing powers vie for influence before a new global order emerges. Leading nations will fight to safeguard their dominance while rising powers seek to carve out their share.
As Earth begins another trip around the Sun, scientists have declared the upcoming year a solar maximum, hinting at both literal and metaphorical intensity. If 2024 taught us anything, it is to always expect the unexpected. While the outlook for the people of the Levant remains bleak, the power to act and shape their destiny is not beyond reach.
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