On Times of War

In recent days, Israel launched a series of carefully orchestrated attacks in Lebanon, starting with the pager bombings that led to thousands of casualties and multiple deaths, culminating in the targeting of a room full of top-tier Hezbollah military commanders. Almost a year after Hamas launched what it dubbed the Al Aqsa Flood on the 7th of October 2023, which they claim was the consequence of repeated Israeli aggression against the Al Aqsa mosque, the increasing oppression of Palestinians in the West Bank and the expanding settlements there, not to mention the 20 year long blockade against Gaza, the war has yet to reach its resolution.

You open the news hoping to hear the latest analysis on the trajectory of the war only to get flooded with conflicting reports that don’t really help in shaping an image of the situation. Statements the likes of “Although Israel is showing lots of military tactical progress and demonstrating astonishing technological and intelligence capabilities, it seems to be losing on the strategic level as it has yet to free its hostages, nor managed to return the residents of the North to their towns, nor has it destroyed Hamas as it set out to do” is what most TV anchors on pro-Palestine and pro-resistance TV stations keep on repeating. These same analysts – and some even on Western media – claim that Israel is losing the war despite all the military accomplishments it has accumulated whether in Gaza or more recently in Lebanon. On the other hand, the Israeli narrative is glorifying and maximizing the success of the on-going attacks to Hezbollah’s infrastructure and command and control center especially after the latest hits on Hezbollah commanders and the bombing campaign on the South of Lebanon on the 23rd of September.

Talks of a cease fire agreement grew these past 2 days, propagating a positive atmosphere that some experts have warned not to take seriously reminding us of the many rounds of negotiations that happened throughout the year between Israel and Hamas which eventually appeared to be nothing but a smoke screen and a front for the Israeli government’s continued genocidal war.

What then? When the whole world appears to be completely silent over the latest events and the continued Israeli aggression on Lebanon, how can we understand the latest escalation and what can we expect?

Israel is thought to be pushing Hezbollah into halting its support of Hamas in Gaza by accepting a separate resolution to end its aggression on Lebanon, under the threat of continued attacks which are increasing in quantity and quality.

With rising speculations of a long awaited ground invasion into Lebanon, and after the severe hits Hezbollah took to its command structure, it is not backing down anytime soon as Nasrallah made it absolutely clear in his latest speech following the devastating pager bombings that the organization will keep on supporting Gaza and Hamas, it will not let the sacrifice of its martyrs go to waste, it will not accept any resolution that does not clearly stipulate a ceasefire in Gaza. In other words, they will stay their course for now. 

This means Lebanon can expect increased Israeli aggression in the South and even in its capital of Beirut and other predominantly Shia areas which Israel has been focusing on specifically until now. The natural question to ask once we reach that point is, until what end? What is Israel trying to accomplish in Lebanon? What does Hezbollah want and how far is it willing to go to get there?

On the 8th October, just a day after Hamas launched their surprise attack into Israel, Hezbollah joined the battle by offering what it called “a support front” in the hopes of improving Hamas’ cards in the negotiations by adding another front to the already burdened Israeli army. Throughout the year, Nasrallah has repeatedly reiterated his dismissal of a large-scale war and has preferred a steady controlled increase of pace and a controlled escalation, hoping that the continued pressure they and the other Iranian proxies are putting on Israel, in addition to the costs of its incursion in Gaza from Hamas’ tough defense along with the escalating internal and external pressure on the Israeli government, will lead to a cease fire agreement before the situation escalates any further.

However, Israel, armed with unlimited American and European backing, managed to completely destroy Gaza and all fundamentals of life in the strip. The subsequent assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’ Political Bureau and its chief negotiator, and Fouad Shokr, a senior commander in Hezbollah, confirmed the suspicions that Netanyahu was not interested in a cease fire and that the Israeli leadership’s priority was not in securing their hostages after all. As it turns out, Israel has been actively trying to expand the war hoping to drag the United States into a direct confrontation with Iran, or at least to secure a green light on its continued operations.

As a reminder, Israel had originally declared three main goals to its war, and added a fourth one just a week ago:

• The elimination of Hamas and its military capabilities
• The return of all the hostages taken during the 7 October attack
• Ensuring that the Gaza Strip no longer poses a threat to Israel
• Returning the residents of the North to their homes (recently added)

The same Israel that was willing to trade hundreds of Palestinian detainees from its jails for just one soldier, Gilat Shalit – for context, Shalit was a soldier in the Israeli army who was captured in 2006 by Hamas and released in 2011 as part of a prisoner exchange deal – has now seemingly changed its demeanor and attitude towards abducted soldiers and citizens. The general mindset of the Israeli leadership has shifted and has been treating the attacks of the 7th of October as an existential threat to the Jewish State itself. Why? Because two of Israel’s foundational pillars had crumbled on that day:

1. Israel’s veil of invincibility, and the carefully crafted image of its unmatched military capabilities and intelligence agencies across the region.
2. The fact that Israel is a safe haven for all jews of the world.

Israel’s actions following that day have been focused on restoring these two strategic pillars by reminding everyone who watches of its strength and the support it has from the West which is allowing her to do whatever it deems to be necessary for its safety and security, even if that means razing Gaza to the ground or conducting brutal military campaigns in the West Bank and Lebanon. Covert assassinations in far away Tehran like the killing of Haniyeh, are a reminder to its enemies that it has the capabilities to spy and put together complex operations on foreign soil to target anyone it wants, anywhere in the world.

In other words, it is trying to rebuild its image by force, on the bodies of thousands and thousands of Palestinian and Lebanese children, women, aid workers, journalists, and first responders.

The intense phase of the war in Gaza has ended, and the bloodthirsty eyes of the Israeli leadership has turned North to an even stronger foe. Why should it stop when no one is forcing it to do so? Netanyahu stated after the assassination of Ibrahim Aqil, Hezbollah’s head of the operations division, that “they will work to change the Middle East”. This means that Israel’s leadership is treating this war not just as a defensive response to the 7th of October, but a chance to create a safer place for its existence, and this can only be achieved by tilting the balance of power in its favor – in other words, by challenging and reducing Iran’s power in the region.

Israel will keep on increasing the pressure on Hezbollah, to create a new reality for whoever enters the White House in the coming elections in November, in the aims of dragging the future administration in its plans. Iran has been practicing its usual “strategic patience”, absorbing blow after blow because it knows that a larger regional war will be its demise since it will be facing not just Israel but the entire Western block led by the US.

The battlefield remains the only place that can dictate the outcome of this war. Will Israel manage to easily cripple Hezbollah and force its conditions unto it or will Hezbollah manage to hold their ground and deal hurtful blows to Israel that will end up challenging its strategy? As of now, Hezbollah seems to be lacking a political strategy besides surviving the confrontation for its on-going participation in the war. The support of Hamas can no longer be its only goal as the Lebanese front has now turned from a “support” to the main front. Will Hezbollah change its approach to the war in the coming days?

This remains to be seen.