A ceasefire was announced on June 24, 2025, marking the end of the 12-day Iran-Israel war. Since the conflict concluded, there has been widespread speculation in the media regarding the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear program as a result of the attack. Additionally, reports suggest that the damage sustained by Israel has been extensively covered up.
The war ended with an ambiguous ceasefire that didn’t introduce any political conditions on either side. Neither side achieved a decisive outcome, and no victory can be declared without a clear political interpretation. In other words, Israel cannot consider itself the victor in this round of escalation, and both sides can claim some level of success: Iran managed to withstand the heavy attacks it faced from the alliance of Israel and other Western states, while also applying pressure on Israel through a series of rocket barrages targeting its major cities. Meanwhile, Israel succeeded in significantly damaging key strategic sites within Iran and set Iran’s nuclear program and proxy network back by years.
The war is not over; it has only been postponed until one side decides it’s time to open the front again.
The Geopolitics of the Middle East
Throughout the centuries, this region has been known by various names: the Fertile Crescent, the Levant, the Cradle of Civilization, the Middle East, Southwest Asia, and the Eastern Mediterranean, among others. Each of these names refers to a land area centered around the eastern basin of the Mediterranean. This region extends from the Nile River in Egypt to the west, reaching the depths of the Iranian Plateau and as far as the heights of the Pakistani mountain range to the east. It stretches from the Bab al-Mandab Strait, South of Yemen to the shores of the Black Sea north of Turkey.
Empire after empire rose and fell in an attempt to assert control over this geographical landmass and the bountiful resources it has to offer.
It has rich, fertile soil at the banks of its major rivers, the Nile, the Euphrates, and the Tigris. It is positioned at the crossroads of three continents—Asia, Africa, and Europe—and it also borders some of the most important maritime pathways in the world: the Hormuz and Bab al Mandab Straits, and the more recent Suez Canal.
In short, the Middle East sits at the heart of the major trade routes that connect the globe. The discovery of oil and gas in the early twentieth century significantly elevated the geostrategic importance of the region.
In recent decades, trade through the Atlantic has experienced a gradual decline, while trade routes through the Indian and Pacific Oceans have gained importance due to the rise of Asian economic and industrial powers. As a result, control over the major waterways and land routes in the Middle East has become increasingly crucial in the pursuit of global dominance.
Regional and global powers are rushing to establish their presence in this crucial area in order to protect their interests. These interests include energy security, which involves ensuring that Gulf oil is transported reliably and affordably to their countries, as well as facilitating the safe transit of goods to and from their nations. While some states find their interests aligned, others compete, leading to rising tensions.
The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, a land trade corridor linking China to Europe via countries in Central Asia and the Middle East, finds itself at odds with the maritime-oriented India-Middle East-Europe Corridor backed by the dominant naval power, the United States.
Although trade is not the sole reason behind conflict in the region, it remains a major driver of the Great Powers’ struggle for influence.
The Geopolitics of Iran
Iran is strategically located in the heart of Asia, making it a geographically significant country. To the south, it borders the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, while to the north, it lies adjacent to the Caspian Sea. It shares its western borders with Türkiye, Iraq, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, and its eastern borders with Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
Iran’s position on the historic Silk Road makes it central to modern trade projects such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Its geography gives it considerable weight for any major power seeking influence.
The growing alignment the three Eurasian Nations of Iran, Russia, and China, poses a threat to the West and the United States’ dominant role in global politics. This theme aligns with a leading theory in geopolitics which envisions a perpetual conflict between land powers and naval powers.
- Halford Mackinder’s Heartland theory argued that whoever controls the resource-rich center of Eurasia (the Heartland) controls the “World Island” and, by extension, the world. This theory emphasizes the importance of the Heartland due to its richness in resources, vast swaths of fertile soil and its enormous potential if controlled by a strong and capable State.
- Alfred Mahan countered that command of sea lanes was the real key to global power.
- Nicholas Spykman’s Rimland theory later blended the two, highlighting the coastal edges of Eurasia as the decisive battleground where land and sea powers collide. Spykman introduced the concept of the Rimland which consists of coastal areas surrounding the Eurasian landmass—as depicted in the map below. Spykeman argued that the Rimland was more strategically important than the Heartland itself, and believed that whoever controlled the Rimland would be in a position to dominate Eurasia and ultimately the world.
In effect, Great Powers seeking global hegemony either aim to control the Heartland (Napoleon, Hitler, Stalin) or to achieve naval supremacy (the British, the Americans). The Rimland serves as the buffer zone between the two, where most clashes occur and where the battle is ultimately decided.
Seen through this lens, modern geopolitics becomes clearer: a maritime order led by the United States versus a land-based order centered on China, Russia, and Iran.
For Washington, gaining control over Iran by either toppling the regime or by driving a wedge between Tehran and its Russian and Chinese partners, would advance its containment strategy against both powers while reinforcing its dominance over global trade. Securing Iran would also strengthen U.S. control over the Rimland, limiting Eurasian powers’ access to the sea and isolating them from the rest of the world.
From Russia and China’s perspective, Iran stands as the last stronghold opposed to the United States alongside the littoral of Southwest Asia. Its alignment with Russia and China provides the former a breathing room from the heavy sanctions imposed on it, as well as access to the Indian Ocean and the rest of the world through Azerbaijan, a route dubbed the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC—map shown below). Additionally, China benefits from Iran’s vast oil and gas reserves, which it purchases at discounted prices due to the sanctions imposed on Iran.
Facing the impossibility of challenging the U.S.’s supremacy over the oceans in the near future, developing a strategy based on land expansion and land-based trade routes becomes inevitable. Iran’s central position thus appears essential to these plans, while also advancing the position of the Eurasian alliance further in the Rimland.
This logic also explains the recent BRICS expansion. Originally linking China, Russia, and India with Brazil and South Africa with the States along Magellan’s route, Brazil and South Africa. The aim is to find alternative partners adjacent to the major maritime routes through which they could access the global market and break their isolation, and challenge the America’s hegemony over the seas.
Magellan’s voyage aimed to find a new route to India, bypassing Muslim lands and the Eastern Mediterranean, which was under Muslim control. In turn, Russia, China and Iran find themselves denied access to the major maritime routes and are looking for alternatives.
The recent expansion of the BRICS and the addition of Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, and Indonesia marks a push towards Rimland territories by adding key maritime hubs in an attempt to challenge America’s grip on global trade.
US Policy and Regional Allies
U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East can best be understood from this perspective. It has been working to secure the Rimland since the 1950s, one region at a time, one state after the other, to contain the main Eurasian powers, first the USSR and more recently China and Russia.
It relies heavily on allies, most notably Israel, which acts as an advanced outpost from which the US can project power against regional rivals such as Iran, Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, and Syria
Its formidable naval power provides it with the backing it needs and the agility to maneuver in areas so far from its mainland.
For their part, America’s allies strategize and operate within the umbrella of the United States’ policy to advance their own interests in the region, by aligning their national interests to America’s national interests.
In the next article, we will discuss how Israel uses this alignment to achieve its objectives, particularly in light of the events of the past two years.
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